Working Group Scenario Development
An essential basis for judging the safety of a repository in the post-operational phase is the determination of possible future evolutions (relevant scenarios) that may lead to a radionuclide release. Scenario development is about the identification, detailed description and selection of relevant processes.
Different methodical approaches to scenario development are pursued and applied interna-tionally. In this context, the derivation and assessment of possible evolutions is a highly inter-disciplinary process. This is so due to the different influencing factors, which makes it indispensable to draw on a large number of different disciplines and areas of knowledge. In order to get an approach to this complex issue within the framework of the German repository programme in terms of a basis for discussion and information, the "Scenario Development" Working Group was formed.
"Scenario Development" Working Group: tasks and topics
The Working Group is made up of representatives from different institutions in Germany who are intensively looking into the topic of scenario development. At its constituting meeting in 1997, the Working Group gave itself the tasks of
• developing a common understanding of the different main emphases in the context of scenario development and transporting it to the experts,
• discussing new developments and trends,
• working out and publishing or otherwise publicly communicating common positions,
• seeking the dialogue and promoting consensual agreement
• identifying different views, opinions and procedures.
Topics that the Working Group has dealt with in the past include i.a. the definitions of terms, the comparison and assessment of methods, the categorisation of scenarios into probability classes, how to deal with future human activities, and especially human intrusion into a repository. At present, the Working Group is discussing the topic of converting scenarios into computations.