(GRS-700) Development and exemplary application of probabilistic methods for assessing the potential radiological consequences of release scenarios resulting from sabotage

[This GRS report is available in German only.]

In the context of licensing and regulatory procedures relating to the operation and decommissioning of nuclear facilities and the transport of nuclear material, it is necessary, among other things, to assess whether adequate protection against sabotage or other malicious acts by third parties (SEWD) is ensured. One aspect to be considered in this regard is whether life and health are sufficiently protected against hazards arising from the release of ionising radiation from nuclear material or its by-products in significant quantities.

The extent of such a release of radioactive substances resulting from sabotage depends to a large extent on the perpetrator’s intent, knowledge and capabilities. Irrespective of these perpetrator characteristics, sabotage scenarios involving a release are also influenced by various probabilistic parameters, determined, for example, by meteorological conditions and the means employed, which affect the extent of the radiological consequences.

The aim of the research project was to develop a generic probabilistic approach for describing various influencing factors in sabotage scenarios involving the release of radioactive material, taking into account, among other things, probabilistic parameters. The study focused on a shooting scenario involving the transport of radioactive material.